Impact of para-transit travel time reliability on urban mobility: a case study

Abstract

This study investigates how poor para-transit travel time reliability fuel the mode shift towards private vehicle ownership in the medium size Indian city. The case study is the city of Bardoli in Gujarat, India, where motorised shared three-wheelers (MSTWs) operate as a para-transit system under a high degree of travel time uncertainty in the absence of formal public bus transit system. The traffic stream on the six study corridors was simulated in VISSIM environment. The multi-linear regression analysis was employed to estimate MSTW travel time reliability. Results show that the proposed bus transit system but reliable could add on overall mode shift as much as 24%. The maximum mode shifts estimated even 100% from MSTW and 33% of car users. The MSTW is preferred as feeder service (63.4%) and not as an alternative to the public transit system. The delay in improving MSTW reliability and implementation of bus transit would cause acceleration in mode shift towards private vehicles.