Strategic Evaluation on Security of China's Petroleum: from 1990 to 2006

Abstract

From the angle of the supply stability and use security, this article has constructed an appraisal indexes system and established the strategic evaluation model for the security of Chinese petroleum by using the gray correlated method. The article then made an empirical research on the bases of the data from 1990 to 2006. The result indicated that the security level of China's petroleum presents an undulatory and slow ascend tendency. This attributed to the combined function of the oil production, the optimization of economical system, and the technology advancement in the energy domain. At the same time, the undulatory slow enhancement from the environmental protection effect, which is led by the conservation of energy in GDP, has greatly influenced the use security of petroleum, and its undulation has attacked the stable function to the humanity effect in the petroleum use security, and it has caused the short-term undulation to the petroleum use security level, as well as the China's petroleum security. It is the most important way for China's petroleum security that synthesis considering the influence factor and the development tendency and promoting the benign function mechanism to be formed to China's petroleum security from the angles of economy growth, petroleum supply, technology advancement, environmental protection, and humanities development.