Is a Regional Trade Agreement with Balkan Countries Applicable for Turkey? A Time Series Analysis.

Abstract

Statistics of Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) and World Bank (WB) imply that the foreign trade volume of Turkey with its major trade partners in the Balkans (Bulgaria, Greece and Romania) may have a positive effect on Turkey’s economy even under the circumstances of the recent financial crisis. In this respect, on the basis of Vector Error Correction (VEC) model, Granger causality analysis has been performed to make inferences about the consequences of a possible regional trade agreement of Turkey with Bulgaria, Greece and Romania on the real economic activity in Turkey. Thereby, it is aimed to determine whether it is reasonable for Turkey to make a regional trade agreement with Bulgaria, Greece and Romania. Empirical findings reveal that Turkish economy may benefit from a regional economic integration with these Balkan countries.