A practical framework for early detection of diabetes using ensemble machine learning models

Abstract

The diagnosis of diabetes, a prevalent global health condition, is crucial for preventing severe complications. In recent years, there has been a growing effort to develop intelligent diagnostic systems for diabetes utilizing machine learning (ML) algorithms. Despite these efforts, achieving high accuracy rates using such systems remains a significant challenge. Recent advancements in ensemble ML methods offer promising opportunities for early detection of diabetes, as they are known to be faster and more cost-effective than traditional approaches. Therefore, this study proposes a practical framework for diagnosing diabetes that involves three stages. The data preprocessing stage encompasses several crucial tasks, including handling missing values, identifying outliers, balancing the data, normalizing the data, and selecting relevant features. Subsequently, the hyperparameters of the ML algorithms are fine-tuned using grid search to improve their performance. In the final stage, the framework employs ensemble techniques such as bagging, boosting, and stacking to combine multiple ML algorithms and further enhance their predictive capability. Pima Indians Diabetes Database open-access dataset was used to test the performance of the proposed models. The experimental results of this framework indicate the superiority of ensemble methods in diagnosing diabetes compared to individual ML models. The stacking method achieved the best accuracy among the ensemble methods, with the stacked random forest (RF) and support vector machine (SVM) model attaining an accuracy of 97.50%. Among the bagging methods, the RF model yielded the highest accuracy, while among the boosting methods, eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) model achieved the highest accuracy rates of 97.20% and 97.10%, respectively. Moreover, our proposed framework outperforms other ML models as confirmed by the comparison. The study has demonstrated that ensemble methods are crucial for accurate diabetes diagnosis, enabling early detection through efficient preprocessing and calibrated models.