Do seat-belts really reduce road casualties?

Abstract

This paper explains the changes of vehicle occupant behaviour following changes in seat-belt legislation or regulations. It applies R Fuller's learning theory of driving behaviour in conjunction with the perceptual phenomenon of 'looming' (coming into sight in a threatening way). Fuller's theory draws on animal learning theory; its central concepts are positive and negative reinforcement and extinction, as they affect the learning of behaviour patterns. For drivers, positive reinforcement of early arrival at destination and 'macho' factors lead to the learning of faster patterns of driving. Collisions, the major source of negative reinforcement, lead to the learning of slower, more cautious driving, but individual drivers rarely experience them. 'Extinction' is the loss of learned behaviour patterns due to reinforcement being removed or becoming ineffective. More dangerous driving patterns can be expected to accompany seat-belt use, but will only gradually become apparent. Thus the value of implementing safety legislation on the basis of short-term data is doubtful. Changes in driver behaviour affect the safety of other modes, especially cycling and walking. Possible solutions include removing seat belts from all cars, to make drivers more cautious, and very strict enforcement of penalties for all speed violations.