High-resolution RCP scenario for the 21st century in the North-West region of Morocco, future projections for 2041-2060, 2061-2080 and 2081-2100

Abstract

Climate model simulations of future climate are the basis for adaptation decisions, which the effectiveness will depend on the quality of the models. A set of climate models developed under the CMIP6 project and generated by the spatial bias correction disaggregation method (BCSD) using a statistical downscaling algorithm have been used. These models are used to evaluate the future changes in thermal extremes projected by the climate models over the different time horizons with comparison to the 1981-2000 reference period. These projections are made under the scenario RCP 4.5 (optimistic). The examination of future climate change projections could confirm the result of warming over the entire North West region of Morocco. The increase in temperature could reached an average of 1.8 °C to 2.5 °C just in 2060. In the same sense of warming, the number of hot days and hot nights could increase year by year while a decrease could be noticed in the number of cold days and cold nights. The simulations for the 2080 and 2100 horizons revealed a situation that worsens year by year. The temperature anomaly could reached about 3 °C and more. Thus, a climatic warming may be predicted in the future and generalized over the entire North West region.