Spatiotemporal pattern of road traffic fatalities in Africa: the effect of economic development

Abstract

ABSTRACT This study aims to analyse the spatiotemporal trends and effect of economic development on road traffic fatalities (RTF) across 48 countries in Africa using annual data between 2007 and 2016. Data on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, population density, road fatalities and registered vehicles were obtained from WHO and World Development Indicators. Spatial autocorrelation and clustering of mortality rates were analysed using spatial statistical techniques. Average mortality rate declined from 32.2 per 100,000 population in 2007 to 26.6 in 2016. There was wide spatial variation in mortality rates across countries. The year 2010 exhibited a statistically significant spatial dependence on mortality rates. Locally, hotspots of mortality rates were located in 10 countries in 2010 and in 2 countries in 2016. Significant ‘coldspots’ were exhibited in four countries during the study period. Mixed-effect negative binomial regression analysis results reveal significant negative relationship between GDP per capita and road fatalities for both highly developed and less developed countries. Furthermore, 1% increase in registered vehicles leads to a rise in RTF. The government needs to invest more funds in road infrastructure, safe public transport, enforcement of regulations and post-crash emergency care.