USE THE ALMON MODEL TO MEASURE THE EFFECT OF WATERMELON SUPPLY ON IT'S PRICE CHANGES

Abstract

The objective of this research was to analyze and estimate the farmer's response to some important economic variables such as farm prices during the period (2005-2016) to identify the most important factors affecting the crop production. Also to estimate the degree of farmers response, the time required to respond and elasticity supply response in the short and long runs. To achieve the research goal, the descriptive and quantitative analysis methods used were suitable for measuring the supply response, Supply Response Impact. The research was based on data published by the Department of Economic Affairs, Central Department of Agricultural Economics, (in Arabic) in the Ministry of Agriculture and Land Reclamation, Egypt in addition to the published researches and the Arab and foreign scientific literature related to the research subject as well as the websites. The results showed the significance annual increase in the form price of the water melon crops (pound per ton) and some of the competing vegetable crops in the production season such as melon, Shahad, cantaloupe, and pumpkin. The annual increase in lag area of the watermelon crops and the lag area for competing crops was insignificant, indicating the stability of their averages. The estimated results of the Almon model showed a decrease in the value of elasticity coefficients in the short term, estimated at 0.40% , 0.08%, 0.71%, 0.62% and 0.32% for watermelon, melon, Shahad, cantaloupe, pumpkin respectively. While in the long term the elasticity was about 0.51%, 0.10%, 0.90%, 0.79% and 0.48%, respectively. The annual response rate was estimated to be about 0.78 (9.4 months), while the full response period was about 1.3 years, indicating a decrease in the supply response period for watermelon crops. This may be due to the possibility of expanding the area planted with watermelon after a year. The study recommends the need to expand horizontally and vertically in the cultivation of watermelon crops, and horizontal expansion by growing more new land with watermelon to increase production and increase market supply to reduce the price. Vertical expansion will increase the production of the unit area and increase the quality of production and introduce new early harvest varieties and types of watermelon.