A Modeling Study of the Respiratory System for an Early Intervention of COVID-19 and Its Transmission

Abstract

Background: One of the most challenging aspects of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is that a newly infected individual shows diagnosable symptoms, such as body temperature (Tb) rise, several days after contracting the disease. In the early phase of infection (i.e., incubation period), an undiagnosed and unaware individual can spread the virus to others. The fastest and most efficient route of COVID-19 transmission is the respiratory system. Therefore, developing a model of the respiratory system to predict changes in the lung performance upon COVID-19 infection is useful for early diagnosis and intervention during the incubation period. Objectives: This modeling study aimed to evaluate the respiratory system to present an early intervention for COVID-19 and its transmission. Methods: A simple model was developed by performing mass and energy balances on the lungs; it was simulated by the Aspen HYSYS chemical process simulator. Results: To compensate for the virus-infected lung inefficiency, the O2 concentration increased in the exhaled air at the cost of decreased CO2 concentration. Contrary to previous findings on the reduced stability of coronavirus in hot and humid environments, it was found that very hot and humid environments promote the viral transmission rate because of the direct heat transfer to the body via respiration and condensation of water vapor that may cause infection in the respiratory tract. Conclusions: Our model revealed that measurement of O2 or CO2 composition of exhaled gas, using a non-invasive and inexpensive device at home, allows for the early diagnosis of infection and its prevention. This study also aimed to highlight the actual effects of high temperature and high relative humidity (RH) on increasing the virus transmission rates, as opposed to the generally accepted hypothesis of decreased coronavirus stability under these conditions.