Population Dynamics and Spatial Dependence: Evidence from Brazilian Cities

Abstract

This paper focuses on Brazil's population dynamics between 1970 and 2010. The first objective is to explore the behavior of Brazil's population distribution, revisiting the traditional rank-size rule and Markov chain approaches. To increase the accuracy of the information on the dynamics and evolution of the population distribution, spatial dependence is introduced through spatial Markov chains. The distribution shape may indicate that divergence in population size of minimum comparable areas (MCAs) is decreasing. The Zipf's law estimation indicates that the population distribution is, every decade, moving away from Pareto law. The Markov chain approach indicates, as main evidence, the high persistence of MCAs to remain in their own class size from one decade to another over the entire period, and that different spatial contexts have different effects on regional transitions.