Three laws of technology rise or fall

Jianfeng Zhan
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引用次数: 3

Abstract

Newton’s laws of motion perfectly explain or approximate physical phenomena in our everyday life. Are there any laws that explain or approximate technology’s rise or fall? After reviewing thirteen information technologies that succeeded, this article concludes three laws of technology and derives five corollaries to explain or approximate the rise or fall of technology. Three laws are the laws of technology inertia, technology change force, and technology action and reaction. Five corollaries are the corollaries of measurement of technology change force, technology breakthrough, technology monopoly, technology openness, and technology business opportunity. I present how to use the laws and the corollaries to analyze an emerging technology—the open-source RISC-V processor. Also, I elaborate on benchmarks’ role in applying those laws.

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技术兴衰的三大法则
牛顿的运动定律完美地解释或近似于我们日常生活中的物理现象。有没有什么定律可以解释或近似地解释技术的兴衰?在回顾了13项成功的信息技术之后,本文总结了技术的三个定律,并推导出五个推论来解释或近似技术的兴衰。三大规律分别是技术惯性规律、技术变革力规律和技术作用与反作用规律。五个推论分别是技术变革力、技术突破、技术垄断、技术开放、技术商业机会计量的推论。我介绍了如何使用这些定律和推论来分析一项新兴技术——开源RISC-V处理器。此外,我还详细阐述了基准在适用这些法律方面的作用。
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