Age structural impact of adolescent and youth on fertility transition in Nepal

Trilochan Pokharel
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Abstract

Nepal is in unique period of demographic situation. The age structure of population is gradually shifting upwards producing a historical large proportion of young population. Given the early age at marriage and childbearing, this population may continue to dominate fertility transition process. Interaction between improvement in the characteristics of this population and recently started declining fertility is expected to push fertility transition at a faster rate until mid of this century before entering to the lowest level marginal decline or stagnation. The young 1population itself are in social, economic, cultural and demographic transition which is sandwiched with generation gap. Demographic analysis should factor their needs and interests to project the future fertility discourse.
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尼泊尔青少年和青年对生育过渡的年龄结构影响
尼泊尔正处于独特的人口形势时期。人口的年龄结构正在逐步向上转移,产生了历史上较大比例的年轻人口。鉴于结婚和生育年龄较早,这一人口可能继续主导生育过渡过程。这一人口特征的改善与最近开始下降的生育率之间的相互作用预计将推动生育率以更快的速度过渡到本世纪中叶,然后进入最低水平的边际下降或停滞。年轻人口本身正处于社会、经济、文化和人口结构的转型期,中间夹着代沟。人口分析应考虑到他们的需求和利益,以预测未来的生育话语。
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