Interpretable Aspect-Aware Capsule Network for Peer Review Based Citation Count Prediction

Abstract

Citation count prediction is an important task for estimating the future impact of research papers. Most of the existing works utilize the information extracted from the paper itself. In this article, we focus on how to utilize another kind of useful data signal (i.e., peer review text) to improve both the performance and interpretability of the prediction models. Specially, we propose a novel aspect-aware capsule network for citation count prediction based on review text. It contains two major capsule layers, namely the feature capsule layer and the aspect capsule layer, with two different routing approaches, respectively. Feature capsules encode the local semantics from review sentences as the input of aspect capsule layer, whereas aspect capsules aim to capture high-level semantic features that will be served as final representations for prediction. Besides the predictive capacity, we also enhance the model interpretability with two strategies. First, we use the topic distribution of the review text to guide the learning of aspect capsules so that each aspect capsule can represent a specific aspect in the review. Then, we use the learned aspect capsules to generate readable text for explaining the predicted citation count. Extensive experiments on two real-world datasets have demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed model in both performance and interpretability.