THE APPLICATION OF LSM FOR LONG-TERM FORECASTING OF SPECIFIC FUEL CONSUMPTION BY THE ENERGY SYSTEM OF UZBEKISTAN

Abstract

The article considers the possibility of using the least squares method (LSM) for long-term forecasting of the parameters of the regime of electric power systems. There is presented least squares method for predicting the parameters of the regime of electric power systems. It is shown that, based on the least-squares method, it is possible to obtain prognostic equations, aswell as coefficients of approximating functions necessary for the formation of these equations. The results of the analysis of the comparison of linear, hyperbolic, logarithmic, exponential and quadratic functions on the use of LSMs to predict specific fuel consumption are presented. Analytical studies are based on statistical data on specific fuel consumption for the period 1990-2016 years by the power system of Uzbekistan. There is shown that the statistical data was divided into training and control samples, when performing an analysis of comparisons of algebraic functions. The training sample, which based on prediction equations are obtained using algebraic functions of various types. The criterion of the least squares method, which is according for using the statistical data of the control sample in the obtained prognostic functions, the standard deviations are found. In the end, there has drawn conclusions, based on the obtained results.