The austrian emergency response modelling system TAMOS

Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Part B: Hydrology, Oceans and Atmosphere Pub Date : 2001-01-01 DOI:10.1016/S1464-1909(00)00224-0

U Pechinger, M Langer, K Baumann, E Petz

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引用次数: 9

Abstract

The emergency response modelling system TAMOS has been developed to predict dispersion and deposition of radioactive material in case of an accident at a nuclear power plant in the vicinity of Austria. The modelling system consists of a prognostic long-range transport and dispersion model and a diagnostic wind field and trajectory model.

The long-range dispersion model was intercompared with other emergency response models in the European real time modelling exercise RTMOD. Two hypothetical atmospheric releases, one from Chernobyl and the other from London were simulated. The forecasts of surface concentrations were evaluated by an automated statistical evaluation package at the European Community's Joint Research Centre (JRC) in Ispra (Mosca et al., 1998a). In general calculated concentrations from TAMOS compare well or are higher than those of the other emergency response models. For example the 75 percentile is within one order of magnitude with 14 models (out of 19) in experiment 1 and 15 models (out of 17) in experiment 2. Also cloud movement is captured well: during the whole 48 hour forecasting period the computed concentration fields cover at least part of the area with a confidence in contamination level of 80 to 100 % in both experiments.

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奥地利应急模拟系统TAMOS

已开发紧急反应模拟系统TAMOS，以便在奥地利附近核电站发生事故时预测放射性物质的扩散和沉积。模型系统由预测远程输运和弥散模型和诊断风场和轨迹模型组成。在欧洲实时模拟演习RTMOD中，将远程扩散模型与其他应急响应模型进行了相互比较。模拟了两个假设的大气释放，一个来自切尔诺贝利，另一个来自伦敦。在Ispra的欧洲共同体联合研究中心(JRC)，对地表浓度的预测进行了自动统计评估(Mosca等人，1998年a)。一般来说，TAMOS计算出的浓度与其他应急反应模型比较好或更高。例如，在实验1中的14个模型(19个)和实验2中的15个模型(17个)中，75%的百分位数在一个数量级内。云的运动也被很好地捕捉到:在整个48小时的预报期内，计算的浓度场至少覆盖了部分地区，在两个实验中，污染水平的置信度为80%到100%。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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