Mapping spatio-temporal variations of shrinkage in Finland

IF 1.3 Q2 GEOGRAPHY Fennia-International Journal of Geography Pub Date : 2023-01-24 DOI:10.11143/fennia.119495
T. Makkonen, T. Inkinen, Simo Rautiainen
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引用次数: 2

Abstract

It is commonly stated that a large share of Finnish regions are shrinking in terms of their population and local economy, which naturally poses challenges for balanced regional development. However, and rather surprisingly, there has been relatively little methodological discussion in Finland on the measurement of shrinkage: how to determine whether a region is shrinking or not? The main aim of this paper is to analyse shrinkage through spatio-temporal indicators and to discuss the variety and complexity of the task. Empirically the paper utilises three commonly used indicators (population, employment, and housing vacancy), three different analysis periods (long, medium and short) and five different spatial scales (regions, sub-regions, municipalities, postal code areas and grids). The results underline how volatile the results are depending on these three choices (indicator, analysis period and spatial scale) when aiming at determining, which of the regions under investigation are shrinking. Depending on the indicator choices and analysed spatio-temporal scales, different shares of Finnish regions can be identified as shrinking. Thus, care is needed when considering which indicator(s), analysis periods and spatial scales are selected for conducting statistical analyses on shrinkage particularly if the results are applied in policies.
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绘制芬兰收缩的时空变化图
人们普遍认为,芬兰很大一部分地区的人口和地方经济都在萎缩,这自然对平衡的区域发展提出了挑战。然而,令人惊讶的是,芬兰很少有关于测量萎缩的方法讨论:如何确定一个地区是否在萎缩?本文的主要目的是通过时空指标分析收缩,并讨论任务的多样性和复杂性。在实证方面,本文采用了3个常用指标(人口、就业和住房空置率)、3个不同的分析周期(长、中、短)和5个不同的空间尺度(区域、子区域、城市、邮政编码区域和网格)。结果表明,在确定哪些调查区域正在萎缩时,结果的波动性取决于这三种选择(指标、分析周期和空间尺度)。根据指标选择和分析的时空尺度,可以确定芬兰地区的不同份额正在萎缩。因此,在考虑选择哪个指标、分析期和空间尺度来进行关于收缩的统计分析时,特别是在将结果应用于政策时,需要谨慎。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
2.70
自引率
0.00%
发文量
15
审稿时长
16 weeks
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