The Effect of Police Layoffs on Crime: A Natural Experiment Involving New Jersey’s Two Largest Cities

IF 1.3 Q3 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY Justice Evaluation Journal Pub Date : 2020-12-21 DOI:10.1080/24751979.2020.1858697
Eric L. Piza, Vijay F. Chillar
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引用次数: 11

Abstract

Abstract The current study tests the effect of police layoffs on crime through a natural experiment involving Newark and Jersey City, New Jersey’s two largest cities. In response to severe budget shortfalls resulting from the economic recession beginning in 2008, officials in both cities seriously considered police layoffs as a potential component of their cutback strategies. The Newark Police Department terminated 13% of the police force in late 2010 while Jersey City officials averted any layoffs from occurring. The current study uses monthly Part 1 crime counts spanning from 2006 to 2015 to measure the effect of the police layoffs on crime in Newark. Findings of time series generalized least squares regression models indicate the police layoffs were associated with significant increases of overall crime, violent crime, and property crime in Newark as compared to Jersey City in the post-layoffs period. Supplemental analyses found the overall crime and violent crime increases become progressively more pronounced each year following the police layoffs.
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警察裁员对犯罪的影响:一个涉及新泽西州两个最大城市的自然实验
摘要:本研究通过一个自然实验来测试警察裁员对犯罪的影响,该实验涉及新泽西州两个最大的城市纽瓦克和泽西城。为了应对2008年开始的经济衰退导致的严重预算短缺,这两个城市的官员认真考虑将警察裁员作为他们削减战略的潜在组成部分。2010年底,纽瓦克警察局解雇了13%的警察,而泽西城官员则避免了任何裁员。目前的研究使用了从2006年到2015年每月的第一部分犯罪统计数据来衡量警察裁员对纽瓦克犯罪的影响。时间序列广义最小二乘回归模型的发现表明,与泽西城相比,在裁员后的时期,纽瓦克的警察裁员与总体犯罪、暴力犯罪和财产犯罪的显著增加有关。补充分析发现,在警察裁员之后,总体犯罪和暴力犯罪的增长每年都变得越来越明显。
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来源期刊
Justice Evaluation Journal
Justice Evaluation Journal CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY-
CiteScore
3.40
自引率
0.00%
发文量
9
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