Temperature and rainfall dependent mathematical modelling for progression of Zika virus infection

Abstract

We formulated a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) mathematical model for transmission of ZIKV. The model was used to estimate different parameters using the outbreak data obtained from Puerto Rico during 2015-2016 in this region. The inclusion of climatic factors in the model assisted in more realistic predictions of the transmission dynamics of ZIKV. The value basic reproduction number R0= 3.2869 calculated at estimated parameters suggested outbreak of infection in this region. The sensitivity analysis revealed that R0 was highly influenced by death rate, mosquito biting rate and maturation rate of immature mosquitoes. The R0 further implied that around 70% of the individuals should be immunised to develop herd immunity to prevent propagation of the disease. The simulation of controlled reproduction number revealed the values of different isolation coefficients (e1 > 0.4, e2 > 0.14, τ1 < 0.1). These coefficients might be utilised by policy makers in the control strategies against the infection.