Evaluation of County Economic Resilience in Henan Province Based on the Entropy Weight-Normal Cloud Model

Qingxiu Peng, Lifang Xuan
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Abstract

As new urbanization constantly develops, the county economy plays a vital role between country and city, and high economic resilience is necessary to support and safeguard for smooth functioning of the county development. The paper constructs the index system of county economic resilience in Henan Province from three dimensions: risk resistance ability, self-stability, and sustainable development ability, and to empirically analyze the economic resilience of 104 counties and cities in the province from 2013 to 2020 using the entropy weight-normal cloud model. The results show that Henan counties’ economic resilience increases slowly over time and decreases spatially from the center to the surrounding region, with Zhengzhou as the main center and Luoyang and Sanmenxia as the subcenter; risk resistance ability and self-stabilization are more influential than the sustainable development ability; the key indicators affecting economic resilience are GDP per capita, retail sales of social consumer goods per capita, financial self-sufficiency rate, education expenditure per capita, and population mobility. Therefore, the counties in Henan should find the right positioning to improve economic resilience; central cities such as Zhengzhou and Luoyang should play their strong functions, while strengthening support for peripheral counties.
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基于熵权-正态云模型的河南省县域经济弹性评价
随着新型城镇化的不断发展,县域经济在城乡之间起着至关重要的作用,高经济韧性是县域发展顺利运行的支撑和保障。本文从抗风险能力、自稳定性和可持续发展能力三个维度构建了河南省县域经济弹性指标体系,并运用熵权-正态云模型对河南省104个县域市2013 - 2020年的经济弹性进行了实证分析。结果表明:河南省县域经济弹性随时间增长缓慢,从中心向周边呈下降趋势,以郑州为主要中心,洛阳、三门峡为副中心;抗风险能力和自稳定能力比可持续发展能力影响更大;影响经济弹性的主要指标是人均GDP、人均社会消费品零售额、人均财政自给率、人均教育支出和人口流动性。因此,河南县域要找准定位,提高经济韧性;郑州、洛阳等中心城市要发挥强大功能,同时加强对周边县域的支持。
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