Urban Determinants of COVID-19 Spread: a Comparative Study across Three Cities in New York State.

IF 1.5 4区 材料科学 Q3 MATERIALS SCIENCE, CERAMICS Transactions of the Indian Ceramic Society Pub Date : 2022-10-01 Epub Date: 2022-06-06 DOI:10.1007/s11524-022-00623-9
Agnieszka Truszkowska, Maya Fayed, Sihan Wei, Lorenzo Zino, Sachit Butail, Emanuele Caroppo, Zhong-Ping Jiang, Alessandro Rizzo, Maurizio Porfiri
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Abstract

The ongoing pandemic is laying bare dramatic differences in the spread of COVID-19 across seemingly similar urban environments. Identifying the urban determinants that underlie these differences is an open research question, which can contribute to more epidemiologically resilient cities, optimized testing and detection strategies, and effective immunization efforts. Here, we perform a computational analysis of COVID-19 spread in three cities of similar size in New York State (Colonie, New Rochelle, and Utica) aiming to isolate urban determinants of infections and deaths. We develop detailed digital representations of the cities and simulate COVID-19 spread using a complex agent-based model, taking into account differences in spatial layout, mobility, demographics, and occupational structure of the population. By critically comparing pandemic outcomes across the three cities under equivalent initial conditions, we provide compelling evidence in favor of the central role of hospitals. Specifically, with highly efficacious testing and detection, the number and capacity of hospitals, as well as the extent of vaccination of hospital employees are key determinants of COVID-19 spread. The modulating role of these determinants is reduced at lower efficacy of testing and detection, so that the pandemic outcome becomes equivalent across the three cities.

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COVID-19 传播的城市决定因素:纽约州三个城市的比较研究。
正在发生的大流行暴露了 COVID-19 在看似相似的城市环境中传播的巨大差异。确定造成这些差异的城市决定因素是一个有待解决的研究问题,这有助于提高城市的流行病学抗御能力、优化测试和检测策略以及有效的免疫工作。在此,我们对 COVID-19 在纽约州三个规模相似的城市(科洛尼、新罗谢尔和尤蒂卡)的传播情况进行了计算分析,旨在找出城市感染和死亡的决定因素。我们开发了详细的城市数字图像,并使用复杂的代理模型模拟 COVID-19 的传播,其中考虑到了空间布局、流动性、人口统计学和人口职业结构的差异。通过认真比较三个城市在同等初始条件下的大流行结果,我们提供了令人信服的证据,证明医院的核心作用。具体来说,在高效检测和发现的情况下,医院的数量和能力以及医院员工的疫苗接种程度是 COVID-19 传播的关键决定因素。在检测和发现效率较低的情况下,这些决定因素的调节作用就会减弱,从而使三个城市的大流行结果变得相同。
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来源期刊
Transactions of the Indian Ceramic Society
Transactions of the Indian Ceramic Society 工程技术-材料科学:硅酸盐
CiteScore
2.40
自引率
8.30%
发文量
12
审稿时长
2.3 months
期刊介绍: Transactions of the Indian Ceramic Society is a quarterly Journal devoted to current scientific research, technology and industry-related news on glass and ceramics. The Journal covers subjects such as the chemical, mechanical, optical, electronic and spectroscopic properties of glass and ceramics, and characterization of materials belonging to this family. The Editor invites original research papers, topical reviews, opinions and achievements, as well as industry profiles for publication. The contributions should be accompanied by abstracts, keywords and other details, as outlined in the Instructions for Authors section. News, views and other comments on activities of specific industries and organizations, and also analyses of industrial scenarios are also welcome.
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