Sustainability of the Peruvian public debt and its effect on economic growth in the period 2000-2021

Abstract

The objective of this research was to evaluate the effects of public debt sustainability on economic growth in the period 2000-2021 and establish a new optimal debt level that does not affect Peru's economic growth. The general method used to determine this effect was the hypothetical deductive method with a non-experimental and longitudinal trend design, because the data to be analyzed are variations that have occurred over time; the VAR (vector autoregressive) model was used as a specific method, because the evidence was insufficient to consider the simultaneity between the reactions of the variables to propose an SVAR model. Data were collected from economic portals such as the Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF), as well as the Central Reserve Bank of Peru (BCRP). The estimated sample size was 88 observations representing all quarters from 2000 to 2021. As a result of the econometric regression, the impact of the level of public debt on economic growth is positive, since a one-unit increase in the percentage of public debt will increase the variation of GDP by almost 1.1%. Regarding the debt level forecast and according to the projection made, it was determined that the new debt level that does not affect the sustainability of public finances or the long-term economic growth of the Peruvian economy should be 38% of GDP.