On the macroeconomic effects of energy price shocks

Douglas R. Bohi
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引用次数: 198

Abstract

Energy price shocks are widely believed to have severe macroeconomic effects, although this conclusion is far from unanimous in the economics literature. An analysis of disaggregated industry data for four countries after each energy price shock in the 1970s reinforces doubts about the role of energy in these recessions. There was no similarity in the impact on output and employment across industries between the two recessions, and no consistent relationship between industry activity and energy intensity by industry. In addition, there is no evidence to support either the wage rigidity hypothesis or the capital obsolescence hypothesis as an explanation of the effect of energy price shocks on macroeconomic behavior.

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论能源价格冲击的宏观经济效应
人们普遍认为,能源价格冲击会对宏观经济产生严重影响,尽管这一结论在经济学文献中远非一致。对上世纪70年代每次能源价格冲击后四个国家的分类行业数据的分析,强化了人们对能源在这些衰退中所起作用的怀疑。两次经济衰退对各行业产出和就业的影响没有相似之处,各行业的工业活动和能源强度之间也没有一致的关系。此外,没有证据支持工资刚性假说或资本陈旧假说作为能源价格冲击对宏观经济行为影响的解释。
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