Mathematical analysis on the dynamics of COVID-19 in India using SIR Epidemic Model

Abstract

The Coronavirus Disease (COVID-19) outbreak as on 9th July 2020 has invaded around 12.3 million population causing over half a million deaths worldwide and counting. The entire scientific community has joined hands to find a vaccine for this deadly virus that causes the respiratory illness, COVID-19 in humans. To understand the dynamics of this communicable disease and its transmission among the people in India, a mathematical model governed by ordinary differential equations with ap- propriate conditions has been established. The model is based on SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Removed) scheme to understand the behavior of susceptible, infective and removed (both recovered and deceased) population in India. The resulting model equations have been simulated using MATLAB software. The results obtained in this model were interpreted graphically and least squares method was used to predict the transmission rate, recovery rate and mortality rate in the absence of any vaccine/immunization.