Scenario-based Stochastic Capacity Planning Model and Decision Risk Analysis

Abstract

To study the capacity planning problem under uncertainty in which market demand and product price are stochastic, multi period capacity planning model based on scenario was investigated in this paper. Two models were proposed: one is a prearranged planning model in which the capacity investment plan do not change with the stochastic market demand, and the other is an adaptive planning model in which capacity investment plan could trace the evolution progress of the stochastic market demand. The computational study compared the decision results of both models, which reveals that the adaptive planning model could suggest better decision. Moreover, based on downside risk analysis, the investment risk of stochastic capacity planning has been investigated, and a prearranged capacity planning model considering the expected downside risk of the objective revenue was proposed. In the model, a constraint of expected downside risk is added to the initial stochastic model to reflect the decision-maker's risk preference. Whether to consider the risk or not will result in different decisions, which, in the computational study, were compared.