{"title":"Credit Risk Discovery in the Stock and CDS Markets: Who Leads, When, and Why‘","authors":"Santiago Forte, Lidija Lovreta","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.1183202","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"This paper analyzes the dynamic relationship between CDS spreads and stock market implied credit spreads (ICS) for a large international set of companies during the period 2002-2004. We find the relationship between these credit spread measures to be stronger, and the probability of the stock market leading credit risk discovery to be higher, at the lower credit quality levels. However, consistent with the argument of insider trading in credit derivatives, we document a positive relationship between the frequency of severe credit downturns and the probability of the CDS market leading price discovery. Apart from these findings, our results suggest a slight informational dominance of the stock market that declines over time.","PeriodicalId":40006,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Derivatives","volume":"10 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.4000,"publicationDate":"2009-12-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"21","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Derivatives","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.1183202","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"BUSINESS, FINANCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 21
Abstract
This paper analyzes the dynamic relationship between CDS spreads and stock market implied credit spreads (ICS) for a large international set of companies during the period 2002-2004. We find the relationship between these credit spread measures to be stronger, and the probability of the stock market leading credit risk discovery to be higher, at the lower credit quality levels. However, consistent with the argument of insider trading in credit derivatives, we document a positive relationship between the frequency of severe credit downturns and the probability of the CDS market leading price discovery. Apart from these findings, our results suggest a slight informational dominance of the stock market that declines over time.
期刊介绍：
The Journal of Derivatives (JOD) is the leading analytical journal on derivatives, providing detailed analyses of theoretical models and how they are used in practice. JOD gives you results-oriented analysis and provides full treatment of mathematical and statistical information on derivatives products and techniques. JOD includes articles about: •The latest valuation and hedging models for derivative instruments and securities •New tools and models for financial risk management •How to apply academic derivatives theory and research to real-world problems •Illustration and rigorous analysis of key innovations in derivative securities and derivative markets
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