Estimation of dry events duration in Northern Tunisia – Analysis of extremes trends

Abstract

Abstract. Modeling of extremes dry spells in Northern Tunisia, in order to detect the severity of the phenomenon, is carried out. Dry events are considered as a sequence of dry days (below a threshold) separated by rainfall events from each other. The maximum dry event duration follows the Generalized Extreme Value distribution. The data series adherence to the probability distribution was verified by the Anderson-Darling test. The positive trend and non-stationarity of dry spells was verified respectively by the Mann–Kendall test and Dickey–Fuller and augmented Dickey–Fuller tests. The irregular distribution of rainfall in the growing season for Sidi Abdelbasset station has increased the number of dry spells. The increase of rainy days in Ghézala dam and Sidi Salem gauge stations resulted in a decrease of dry spells in this area. Regarding the return period of one year (wet season), dry events occurred from 14 to 27 d in this region constitute an agricultural potential risk. The Southern region was the most vulnerable.