{"title":"Vulnerability Analysis of Macroeconomic Indicators for Early Detection of Currency Crisis: Case Study of Indonesian Economy on 1991–2019","authors":"H. Sutrisno, D. Sari, R. Handoyo","doi":"10.1142/S179399332150006X","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The purpose of this study is to detect the currency crisis in Indonesia by exploring the vulnerability of macroeconomic variables. The Exchange Market Pressure Index was used to determine the crisis period by modeling the threshold value. Early indicators were determined using the signal analysis approach; therefore, the vulnerability level of each macroeconomic variable is known and used to determine the leading indicators. The result showed that the Signal Analysis and Herrera–Garcia approaches are the best detection models. Furthermore, it was concluded that the Signal Analysis approach was better in detecting crises compared to the Herrera–Garcia approach.","PeriodicalId":44073,"journal":{"name":"Journal of International Commerce Economics and Policy","volume":"4 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":1.3000,"publicationDate":"2021-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"1","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of International Commerce Economics and Policy","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1142/S179399332150006X","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Abstract
The purpose of this study is to detect the currency crisis in Indonesia by exploring the vulnerability of macroeconomic variables. The Exchange Market Pressure Index was used to determine the crisis period by modeling the threshold value. Early indicators were determined using the signal analysis approach; therefore, the vulnerability level of each macroeconomic variable is known and used to determine the leading indicators. The result showed that the Signal Analysis and Herrera–Garcia approaches are the best detection models. Furthermore, it was concluded that the Signal Analysis approach was better in detecting crises compared to the Herrera–Garcia approach.
期刊介绍：
Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP) is a peer-reviewed journal that seeks to publish high-quality research papers that explore important dimensions of the global economic system (including trade, finance, investment and labor flows). JICEP is particularly interested in potentially influential research that is analytical or empirical but with heavy emphasis on international dimensions of economics, business and related public policy. Papers must aim to be thought-provoking and combine rigor with readability so as to be of interest to both researchers as well as policymakers. JICEP is not region-specific and especially welcomes research exploring the growing economic interdependence between countries and regions.
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