Catastrophic failure mechanism of rock masses system and earthquake prediction based on percolation theory

Abstract

The failure of rocks is a complicated process as the mechanical properties of the rock are governed by loading history and cumulative ruptures. The geometric aspects of fractures, such as the size and shape of the fractures, the spatial distribution of the fracture networks, and the relations among these aspects also depend on the loads acting on rock mass. In general, the fractures are randomly generated in space which is difficult to be described using mathematical methods. In this paper, the failure processes of rock have been analyzed using the percolation theory. The results indicate that the failure process of rock is a transition from a stable state to an unstable state. This phenomenon is essentially consistent with the phase transition in the percolation theory. Based on this consistency, a theoretical model of percolation for earthquake prediction is proposed. A large number of seismic data provided strong evidence in support of the reliability and applicability of this model.