The new frontier.

Abstract

Ehiwario Efeyini Director and Senior Market Strategy Analyst Months on from the initial outbreak, the world remains in the grip of the novel coronavirus pandemic. From shuttered storefronts to school closures and government-enforced shutdowns, the impact on daily life worldwide has been extreme, and the global economy is still operating well below capacity. The scale of the crisis has been unparalleled in living memory. But a look at the past 100 years shows several periods of societal, economic, geopolitical and financial crisis that would eventually give way to new patterns of activity, innovation, policy support and cooperation that were more constructive for households, companies and investors. The early 20th century included a world war and a global flu pandemic. The 1930s saw an economic depression and military conflict on an even larger scale. The 1970s was a period of economic stagnation and high inflation. And the first decade of the new millennium brought the collapse of a stock market bubble, the rise of global terrorism and a financial crash. Crucially, each of these historical crisis periods was ultimately succeeded by an economic revival, a more favorable investment environment and sustained price gains for equity markets (Exhibit 1).