Urban growth simulation using cellular automata model and machine learning algorithms (case study: Tabriz metropolis)

Abstract

Urban growth simulation using cellular automata model and machine learning algorithms (case study: Tabriz metropolis). Environmental Sciences. 19(4): 183-204. Results and discussion: The results showed that the random forest algorithm with the area under the ROC curve of 0.9228 compared to the support vector machine and multilayer perceptron neural network algorithms with 0.8951 and 0.8726, respectively, had a better performance in estimating the change potential of non-urban to urban areas. Furthermore, in comparison with others, the random forest also clearly showed local variations in potential change. Finally, the growth of Tabriz city was simulated using the cellular automata model based on the obtained change potential maps. Comparison of the prediction map in the validation period with the current situation of urban areas in 2015 showed that the accuracy of an urban growth simulation model based on random forest with a Figure of Merit index of 0.3569 compared to models based on support vector machine and artificial neural network was more accurate in allocating non-urban to urban lands with 0.3496 and 0.3434, respectively. Conclusion: As machine learning algorithms such as artificial neural networks, support vector machines, and random forest are capable of solving non-linear problems, using them is strongly recommended for urban growth simulation. Also, among the algorithms used in this research, the random forest algorithm based on ensemble learning has a higher advantage than the two-support vector machine and the artificial neural network algorithms.