An ecological study of vulnerability to COVID-19 in Serbia - using Hotspot Analysis for Evidence-Based Population Health Policy

Q4 Social Sciences Forum Geografic Pub Date : 2022-06-30 DOI:10.5775/fg.2022.103.i

S. Obradović, S. Matović, H. Rabiei-Dastjerdi, S. Matthews

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Abstract

The risk of severe illness or death from COVID-19 is associated with specific demographic characteristics or composition of the population within geographic areas, and the spatial relationship between these areas. The aim of this paper is to identify areas with a higher concentration of population vulnerable to COVID-19, relying on the concept of spatial dependence. Hence, we focus on the share of vulnerable populations using several salient proxy measures at municipality level data for Serbia. The degree of vulnerability at the municipality level was determined by hotspot analysis, specifically the Getis-Ord Gi* statistics. The results indicate heterogeneity in the spatial patterning and typologies of clusters across Serbia. This spatial heterogeneity reveals potentially differing degrees of risk across municipalities. The results can inform decision-makers in the fight against COVID-19 by helping to identify those areas with vulnerable populations that if exposed may stress the local health care system. © 2022 University of Craiova, Faculty of Social Sciences, Department of Geography. All rights reserved.

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塞尔维亚COVID-19脆弱性的生态学研究——基于循证人口卫生政策的热点分析

罹患COVID-19严重疾病或死亡的风险与地理区域内的特定人口特征或人口构成以及这些区域之间的空间关系有关。本文的目的是利用空间依赖的概念，识别出易感染COVID-19的人口集中度较高的地区。因此，我们将重点放在弱势群体的份额上，使用塞尔维亚市政一级数据的几个显著代理措施。通过热点分析，即Getis-Ord Gi*统计，确定了市级的脆弱性程度。结果表明，塞尔维亚集群的空间格局和类型存在异质性。这种空间异质性揭示了不同城市之间潜在的不同风险程度。研究结果可以为决策者提供抗击COVID-19的信息，方法是帮助确定那些弱势群体存在的地区，如果这些地区暴露在外，可能会给当地卫生保健系统带来压力。©2022克拉约瓦大学社会科学学院地理系。版权所有。

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来源期刊

Forum Geografic Earth and Planetary Sciences-Earth-Surface Processes

CiteScore

0.70

自引率

0.00%

发文量

审稿时长

12 weeks

期刊介绍： Founded in 2002, Forum geografic. Studii de geografie şi protecţia mediului aims to publish high quality research in the domains of geography, environment protection and other related domains. It addresses a range of issues, such as geomorphology, pedology, climatology, hydrology, human geography and environment. Its content is directed to a broad audience, including both academics and policymakers. The papers selected for publication in the journal are subject to a review process using references from universities worldwide.