Unequal-order grey model with the difference information and its application

Abstract

According to the principle of minimum information, new information priority, and difference information, most existing grey forecast models and their improvement are inconsistent with the grey theory. Therefore, a novel discrete multivariable grey model with unequal fractional-order accumulation is proposed. To improve the accuracy and stability of the model, an optimization algorithm for unequal fractional-order is proposed. The proposed model and algorithm are evaluated with four actual cases. The results show that the novel model has better performance and the proposed unequal fractional-order accumulation operator is better than other existing accumulation operators. Considering the energy consumption, the carbon dioxide emissions in the USA have been forecasted to decrease but remain at a high level by using the novel discrete multivariable grey model. Reducing energy consumption is conducive to reducing carbon dioxide emissions.