Application of DSSAT Crop Simulation Model to Identify the Changes of Rice Growth and Yield in Nilwala River Basin for Mid-centuries under Changing Climatic Conditions

Abstract

Changes of climate will be one of the deciding factors that affect for future food production in the world because crop growth is highly sensitive to any changes of climatic conditions. As the rice is staple food of Sri Lankans, it is essential to identify the impacts of climate changes on country's rice production. This study was conducted to identify the yield and growth changes of most popular two rice varieties (At362 and Bg357) cultivated in Nilwala river basin at Yala season under the global climate change scenario Representative Concentrate Pathway (RCP) 8.5. The Decision Support System for Agro technology Transfer (DSSAT) software is used to forecast the rice yield for Yala season in mid-centuries. To simulate the rice yield DSSAT requires data sets of crop growth and management, daily weather data and soil data. Crop management data were obtained from an experiment which was conducted in Palatuwa area at Nilwala downstream in Matara district. Daily weather data were collected from Mapalana weather station and soil data were collected from wet zone soil classification. Model was calibrated using experimental data for Yala season 2014 and model was validated using collected data in Yala season 2013. Future yield was predicted using forecasted weather data under climate change scenario RCP 8.5 for Mapalana area. The results show that increasing temperature and solar radiation and decreasing rainfall in mid-centuries affects both yield and growth of rice. Grain yield in mid-centuries shows decreasing trend in both varieties by 25% to 35% than the yield at 2014 and growth period will be shorter than the present conditions.