{"title":"Forecasting Employment in Europe: Are Survey Results Helpful?","authors":"R. Lehmann, A. Weyh","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2337564","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"In this paper we evaluate the forecasting performance of employment expectations for employment growth in 15 European states. Our data cover the period from the first quarter 1998 to the fourth quarter 2014. With in-sample analyses and pseudo out-of-sample exercises, we find that for most of the European states considered, the survey-based indicator model outperforms common benchmark models. It is therefore a powerful tool for generating more accurate employment forecasts. We observe the best results for one quarter ahead predictions that are primarily the aim of the survey question. However, employment expectations also work well for longer forecast horizons in some countries.","PeriodicalId":55850,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Business Cycle Research","volume":"44 1","pages":"81-117"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2013-10-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"33","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Business Cycle Research","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2337564","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"Economics, Econometrics and Finance","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 33
Abstract
In this paper we evaluate the forecasting performance of employment expectations for employment growth in 15 European states. Our data cover the period from the first quarter 1998 to the fourth quarter 2014. With in-sample analyses and pseudo out-of-sample exercises, we find that for most of the European states considered, the survey-based indicator model outperforms common benchmark models. It is therefore a powerful tool for generating more accurate employment forecasts. We observe the best results for one quarter ahead predictions that are primarily the aim of the survey question. However, employment expectations also work well for longer forecast horizons in some countries.
期刊介绍：
The Journal of Business Cycle Research promotes the exchange of knowledge and information on theoretical and empirical aspects of economic fluctuations. The range of topics encompasses the methods, analysis, measurement, modeling, monitoring, or forecasting of cyclical fluctuations including but not limited to: business cycles, financial cycles, credit cycles, price fluctuations, sectoral cycles, regional business cycles, international business cycles, the coordination and interaction of cycles, their implications for macroeconomic policy coordination, fiscal federalism and optimal currency areas, or the conduct of monetary policy; as well as statistical approaches to the development of short-term economic statistics and indicators; business tendency, investment, and consumer surveys; use of survey data or cyclical indicators for business cycle analysis.
The journal targets both theoretical and applied economists and econometricians in academic research on economic fluctuations, as well as researchers in central banks and other institutions engaged in economic forecasting and empirical modeling.
The Journal of Business Cycle Research is the successor to the OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis which was published by the OECD and CIRET from 2004 to 2015.
Cited as: J Bus Cycle Res
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