Developing fragility and consequence models for buildings in the Groningen field

Abstract

Abstract This paper describes the ongoing experimental and analytical activities that are being carried out to develop fatality and consequence models for the estimation of ‘Inside Local Personal Risk’ (ILPR) of buildings within the Groningen field. ILPR is defined as the annual probability of fatality for a hypothetical person who is continuously present without protection inside a building. In order to be able to estimate this risk metric, a robust estimate of the probability of collapse of structural and non-structural elements within a building is needed, as these have been found to be the greatest drivers of fatality risk. To estimate the collapse potential of buildings in Groningen, structural numerical models of a number of representative case studies have been developed and calibrated through in situ and laboratory testing on materials, connections, structural components and even full-scale buildings. These numerical models are then subjected to increased levels of ground shaking to estimate the probability of collapse, and the associated consequences are estimated from the observed collapse mechanisms.