{"title":"The forward dynamics in energy markets – infinite-dimensional modelling and simulation","authors":"A. Barth, F. Benth","doi":"10.1080/17442508.2014.895359","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"In this paper an infinite-dimensional approach to model energy forward markets is introduced. Similar to the Heath–Jarrow–Morton framework in interest-rate modelling, a first-order hyperbolic stochastic partial differential equation models the dynamics of the forward price curves. These equations are analysed, and in particular regularity and no-arbitrage conditions in the general situation of stochastic partial differential equations driven by an infinite-dimensional martingale process are studied. Both arithmetic and geometric forward price dynamics are studied, as well as accounting for the delivery period of electricity forward contracts. A stable and convergent numerical approximation in the form of a finite element method for hyperbolic stochastic partial differential equations is introduced and applied to some examples with relevance to energy markets.","PeriodicalId":49269,"journal":{"name":"Stochastics-An International Journal of Probability and Stochastic Processes","volume":"66 1","pages":"932 - 966"},"PeriodicalIF":0.9000,"publicationDate":"2014-10-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"18","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Stochastics-An International Journal of Probability and Stochastic Processes","FirstCategoryId":"100","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1080/17442508.2014.895359","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"MATHEMATICS, APPLIED","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 18
Abstract
In this paper an infinite-dimensional approach to model energy forward markets is introduced. Similar to the Heath–Jarrow–Morton framework in interest-rate modelling, a first-order hyperbolic stochastic partial differential equation models the dynamics of the forward price curves. These equations are analysed, and in particular regularity and no-arbitrage conditions in the general situation of stochastic partial differential equations driven by an infinite-dimensional martingale process are studied. Both arithmetic and geometric forward price dynamics are studied, as well as accounting for the delivery period of electricity forward contracts. A stable and convergent numerical approximation in the form of a finite element method for hyperbolic stochastic partial differential equations is introduced and applied to some examples with relevance to energy markets.
期刊介绍：
Stochastics: An International Journal of Probability and Stochastic Processes is a world-leading journal publishing research concerned with stochastic processes and their applications in the modelling, analysis and optimization of stochastic systems, i.e. processes characterized both by temporal or spatial evolution and by the presence of random effects.
Articles are published dealing with all aspects of stochastic systems analysis, characterization problems, stochastic modelling and identification, optimization, filtering and control and with related questions in the theory of stochastic processes. The journal also solicits papers dealing with significant applications of stochastic process theory to problems in engineering systems, the physical and life sciences, economics and other areas. Proposals for special issues in cutting-edge areas are welcome and should be directed to the Editor-in-Chief who will review accordingly.
In recent years there has been a growing interaction between current research in probability theory and problems in stochastic systems. The objective of Stochastics is to encourage this trend, promoting an awareness of the latest theoretical developments on the one hand and of mathematical problems arising in applications on the other.
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