IMPACT OF REMOVAL STRATEGIES OF STAY-AT-HOME ORDERS ON THE NUMBER OF COVID-19 INFECTORS AND PEOPLE LEAVING THEIR HOMES

IF 1.3 Q4 COMPUTER SCIENCE, ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE International Journal of Innovative Computing Information and Control Pub Date : 2021-06-01 DOI:10.24507/IJICIC.17.03.1055
Yuto Omae, Yohei Kakimoto, J. Toyotani, Kazuyuki Hara, Y. Gon, Hirotaka Takahashi
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Abstract

As of November 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic continues to rage across the world. One of the measures that has been taken to curb the spread of the virus is blanket stay-at-home orders. Staying at home significantly limits close contact with others and can, thus, decrease the number of new cases. However, if people refrain from going out, this will cause significant economic damage. For this reason, some people think that these orders should be revoked after a short period of time, and people should get out more often. However, if blanket stay-at-home restrictions are lifted before a significant decrease is seen in the number of new cases, the number of infected people is likely to increase within a short period. This will, in turn, hasten the next round of blanket stay-at-home orders and lead to a further reduction in people who can leave their home. Against this backdrop, this study examines below phenomena, through a multi-agent simulation. The early removal strategies of stay-at-home orders for increasing the number of people leaving their homes have the effect of both increasing and decreasing the number of such people. Therefore, we consider the strategies do not lead to a sufficient increase in the overall number of people leaving their homes. To examine these phenomena, we conducted the simulations that consist of six scenarios with the different removal condition of stay-at-home orders. As a result, we could confirm that when more removal conditions of stay-at-home orders were eased, the tendencies of more number of infected people and death people were increasing with some exceptions. In contrast, there were almost no differences among the numbers of people leaving their home of these scenarios. Based on the results, we also examined the possibility of a strategy that covers both infected people and the number of people allowed to leave their homes.
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居家令解除策略对COVID-19感染者和离家人数的影响
截至2020年11月,COVID-19大流行继续在全球肆虐。为遏制病毒传播而采取的措施之一是全面居家令。呆在家里大大限制了与他人的密切接触,从而可以减少新病例的数量。但是,如果人们不外出,将会造成巨大的经济损失。因此,一些人认为这些命令应该在短时间内撤销,人们应该多出去走走。但是,如果在新病例数量大幅减少之前取消全面的居家限制,则感染人数可能会在短时间内增加。反过来,这将加速下一轮全面居家令的出台,并导致能够离开家的人进一步减少。在此背景下,本研究通过多智能体模拟考察了以下现象。为了增加离开家园的人数而采取的居家令的早期搬迁策略,具有增加和减少这类人数量的双重效果。因此,我们认为这些策略不会导致离开家园的总人数充分增加。为了检验这些现象,我们对六种不同的居家令解除条件进行了模拟。因此,我们可以确认,随着居家令解除条件的放宽,除个别例外,感染人数和死亡人数增加的趋势也在增加。相比之下,在这些情况下离开家的人数几乎没有差异。根据调查结果,我们还研究了一项战略的可能性,该战略既包括受感染的人,也包括被允许离开家园的人数。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
3.20
自引率
20.00%
发文量
0
审稿时长
4.3 months
期刊介绍: The primary aim of the International Journal of Innovative Computing, Information and Control (IJICIC) is to publish high-quality papers of new developments and trends, novel techniques and approaches, innovative methodologies and technologies on the theory and applications of intelligent systems, information and control. The IJICIC is a peer-reviewed English language journal and is published bimonthly
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