Seismicity Simulation and a Forecast Model Based on Monte Carlo Simulation Techniques and Performance of Distribution Models

Abstract

In seismic hazard studies, simulation techniques are exploited relatively less compared to other statistical methods. The main purposes of their use were merely scientific: either to reduce uncertainty in seismic hazard or to test the consistency of a forecast. Its limited exploitation in the field does not mean that the method could not be exploited further. Given sufficient data and with the right models, a full-scale simulation is possible, which in fact becomes a forecast with future timing, location and magnitude of future events are simulated. Within this context, the main purpose of this study is to layout a method to create a full scale simulation with all the parameters namely the time, location and magnitude of an earthquake is simulated. For that purpose, in addition to the main parameters defining past seismic patterns, namely the temporal, spatial, magnitude distributions, the combined spatio-magnitude distribution is also modeled. As another improvement compared to the current procedures, occurrence date is assigned to the simulated event according to the inter-event time distribution, which enhances the simulation procedure. The eventual temporal distribution and the associated earthquake rates are checked with the original earthquake rate for its consistency. In the end, a simulation procedure, which can also be used as a forecast model is developed to improve the existing procedures further.