Long term forecasting: A novel time-trend analysis technique

Abstract

Most business decisions of a strategic nature require the forecasting of future events before any concerted plans can be formulated. The likely future levels of product sales, as depicted by the product life cycle, is of special interest in this regard. This paper develops and validates a particular time trend analysis model which the author hopes will be useful and which is believed to be novel. This model is based upon the equation: $\text{S}{}_{\mathrm{t}}\text{= S}{}^{\mathrm{*}}\text{1-exp[-(}\text{t}\text{A}{}^{\mathrm{B}}\text{]}$