A New Bayesian Network-Based Generalized Weighting Scheme for the Amalgamation of Multiple Drought Indices

IF 1.7 4区工程技术 Q2 MATHEMATICS, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS Complexity Pub Date : 2023-04-21 DOI:10.1155/2023/8260317

Muhammad Ahmad Raza, Mohammed M. A. Almazah, Nadhir Al-ansari, Ijaz Hussain, Fuad S. Al-Duais, Mohammed A. Naser

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Abstract

Drought is one of the most multifaceted hydrologic phenomena, affecting several factors such as soil moisture, surface runoff, and significant water shortages. Therefore, monitoring and assessing drought occurrences based on a single drought index are inadequate. The current study develops a multiscalar weighted amalgamated drought index (MWADI) to amalgamate multiple drought indices. The MWADI is mainly based on the normalized average dependence posterior probabilities (ADPPs). These ADPPs are obtained from Bayesian networks (BNs)-based Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations. Results have shown that the MWADI correlates more with the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the standardized precipitation temperature index (SPTI). As proposed, the MWADI synthesizes drought characteristics of different multiscalar drought indices to reduce the uncertainty of individual drought indices and provide a comprehensive drought assessment.

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基于贝叶斯网络的多干旱指标合并广义加权新方案

干旱是最多方面的水文现象之一，影响到土壤湿度、地表径流和严重的水资源短缺等几个因素。因此，基于单一干旱指数监测和评估干旱事件是不够的。本研究提出了一个多标量加权合并干旱指数（MWADI）来合并多个干旱指数。MWADI主要基于归一化平均依赖后验概率（ADPPs）。这些adpp是通过基于贝叶斯网络（BNs）的马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗（MCMC）模拟得到的。结果表明，MWADI与标准化降水指数（SPI）和标准化降水温度指数（SPTI）的相关性较强。根据建议，MWADI综合不同多尺度干旱指数的干旱特征，降低单个干旱指数的不确定性，提供综合干旱评价。

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来源期刊

Complexity 综合性期刊-数学跨学科应用

CiteScore

5.80

自引率

4.30%

发文量

595

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： Complexity is a cross-disciplinary journal focusing on the rapidly expanding science of complex adaptive systems. The purpose of the journal is to advance the science of complexity. Articles may deal with such methodological themes as chaos, genetic algorithms, cellular automata, neural networks, and evolutionary game theory. Papers treating applications in any area of natural science or human endeavor are welcome, and especially encouraged are papers integrating conceptual themes and applications that cross traditional disciplinary boundaries. Complexity is not meant to serve as a forum for speculation and vague analogies between words like “chaos,” “self-organization,” and “emergence” that are often used in completely different ways in science and in daily life.