Price Discovery and Integration in U.S. Pecan Markets

Abstract

The United States is a major supplier in the world pecan market. Using grower-level pecan price data from the 2005–2016 seasons, we estimate pecan market integration patterns among Texas, Oklahoma, Georgia, and Louisiana using causality structures identified through cutting-edge machine-learning methods. Current pecan price received by growers in Texas is a direct cause of those in Oklahoma, Georgia, and Louisiana. Past-period grower-level pecan price in Georgia either directly or indirectly influences the current price in other states. These findings are useful for businesses and the government in order to price and promote marketing of pecan.