Estimation of the Risk Associated to Marketing of Swine Meat Contaminated with Salmonella spp., Employing the William T. Fine Method

Abstract

Swine meat is a growing market in Colombia, reaching 3.1 million of carcasses sold in 2014. However, it is estimated that the proportion of hogs illegally marketed can be up to 50%, which exposes the population to foodborne pathogens such as Salmonella. The aim of this study was to estimate the risk associated to the marketing of swine meat contaminated with Salmonella, using the William T. Fine method in Tolima Department. The risk scenarios applied to four municipalities positive for Salmonella showed a medium and low level of risk, and an exposed population of 114,000 people, representing 8.7% of the Department's population. In the worst-case scenario, costs for hospitalization and compensation could represent more than US$ 145 billion for the biggest municipality. It can be concluded that the William T. Fine method is applicable for biological risk analysis focused on foodborne pathogen outbreaks.