Samuel P Rosin, Bonnie E Shook-Sa, Stephen R Cole, Michael G Hudgens
{"title":"Estimating SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence.","authors":"Samuel P Rosin, Bonnie E Shook-Sa, Stephen R Cole, Michael G Hudgens","doi":"10.1093/jrsssa/qnad068","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><p>Governments and public health authorities use seroprevalence studies to guide responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. Seroprevalence surveys estimate the proportion of individuals who have detectable SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. However, serologic assays are prone to misclassification error, and non-probability sampling may induce selection bias. In this paper, non-parametric and parametric seroprevalence estimators are considered that address both challenges by leveraging validation data and assuming equal probabilities of sample inclusion within covariate-defined strata. Both estimators are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal, and consistent variance estimators are derived. Simulation studies are presented comparing the estimators over a range of scenarios. The methods are used to estimate severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) seroprevalence in New York City, Belgium, and North Carolina.</p>","PeriodicalId":49983,"journal":{"name":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A-Statistics in Society","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":1.5000,"publicationDate":"2023-05-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC10746549/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A-Statistics in Society","FirstCategoryId":"100","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1093/jrsssa/qnad068","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"数学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2023/10/1 0:00:00","PubModel":"eCollection","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"SOCIAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICAL METHODS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
Governments and public health authorities use seroprevalence studies to guide responses to the COVID-19 pandemic. Seroprevalence surveys estimate the proportion of individuals who have detectable SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. However, serologic assays are prone to misclassification error, and non-probability sampling may induce selection bias. In this paper, non-parametric and parametric seroprevalence estimators are considered that address both challenges by leveraging validation data and assuming equal probabilities of sample inclusion within covariate-defined strata. Both estimators are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal, and consistent variance estimators are derived. Simulation studies are presented comparing the estimators over a range of scenarios. The methods are used to estimate severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) seroprevalence in New York City, Belgium, and North Carolina.
期刊介绍：
Series A (Statistics in Society) publishes high quality papers that demonstrate how statistical thinking, design and analyses play a vital role in all walks of life and benefit society in general. There is no restriction on subject-matter: any interesting, topical and revelatory applications of statistics are welcome. For example, important applications of statistical and related data science methodology in medicine, business and commerce, industry, economics and finance, education and teaching, physical and biomedical sciences, the environment, the law, government and politics, demography, psychology, sociology and sport all fall within the journal''s remit. The journal is therefore aimed at a wide statistical audience and at professional statisticians in particular. Its emphasis is on well-written and clearly reasoned quantitative approaches to problems in the real world rather than the exposition of technical detail. Thus, although the methodological basis of papers must be sound and adequately explained, methodology per se should not be the main focus of a Series A paper. Of particular interest are papers on topical or contentious statistical issues, papers which give reviews or exposés of current statistical concerns and papers which demonstrate how appropriate statistical thinking has contributed to our understanding of important substantive questions. Historical, professional and biographical contributions are also welcome, as are discussions of methods of data collection and of ethical issues, provided that all such papers have substantial statistical relevance.
京公网安备 11010802042870号
京ICP备2023020795号-1
分享
求助内容：
应助结果提醒方式：
扫码关注我们
