The Problem of Effective Evacuation of the Population from Floodplains under Threat of Flooding: Algorithmic and Software Support with Shortage of Resources

O. Vatyukova, A. Klikunova, Anna A. Vasilchenko, A. Voronin, A. Khoperskov, M. Kharitonov
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Abstract

Extreme flooding of the floodplains of large lowland rivers poses a danger to the population due to the vastness of the flooded areas. This requires the organization of safe evacuation in conditions of a shortage of temporary and transport resources due to significant differences in the moments of flooding of different spatial parts. We consider the case of a shortage of evacuation vehicles, in which the safe evacuation of the entire population to permanent evacuation points is impossible. Therefore, the evacuation is divided into two stages with the organization of temporary evacuation points on evacuation routes. Our goal is to develop a method for analyzing the minimum resource requirement for the safe evacuation of the population of floodplain territories based on a mathematical model of flood dynamics and minimizing the number of vehicles on a set of safe evacuation schedules. The core of the approach is a numerical hydrodynamic model in shallow water approximation. Modeling the hydrological regime of a real water body requires a multi-layer geoinformation model of the territory with layers of relief, channel structure, and social infrastructure. High-performance computing is performed on GPUs using CUDA. The optimization problem is a variant of the resource investment problem of scheduling theory with deadlines for completing work and is solved on the basis of a heuristic algorithm. We use the results of numerical simulation of floods for the Northern part of the Volga-Akhtuba floodplain to plot the dependence of the minimum number of vehicles that ensure the safe evacuation of the population. The minimum transport resources depend on the water discharge in the Volga river, the start of the evacuation, and the localization of temporary evacuation points. The developed algorithm constructs a set of safe evacuation schedules for the minimum allowable number of vehicles in various flood scenarios. The population evacuation schedules constructed for the Volga-Akhtuba floodplain can be used in practice for various vast river valleys.
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洪水威胁下洪泛区人口有效疏散问题:资源短缺下的算法与软件支持
大型低地河流泛滥平原的极端洪水,由于被淹没地区的广阔,对人口构成了危险。这就要求在不同空间部位的洪涝时刻存在显著差异,导致临时和运输资源短缺的情况下,组织安全疏散。我们考虑到疏散车辆短缺的情况,在这种情况下,不可能将全体人口安全疏散到永久疏散点。因此,疏散分为两个阶段,并在疏散路线上组织临时疏散点。我们的目标是开发一种方法,基于洪水动力学的数学模型,分析洪泛区人口安全疏散的最小资源需求,并在一套安全疏散时间表上最小化车辆数量。该方法的核心是浅水近似下的数值水动力模型。模拟真实水体的水文状况需要一个包含地形、河道结构和社会基础设施的多层地理信息模型。使用CUDA在gpu上执行高性能计算。优化问题是带任务完成期限的调度理论的资源投入问题的一个变体,采用启发式算法求解。我们利用伏尔加-阿赫图巴河漫滩北部洪水的数值模拟结果,绘制了保证人口安全疏散的最小车辆数量的依赖关系。最小的运输资源取决于伏尔加河的排水量、疏散的开始和临时疏散点的定位。所开发的算法构建了一套在各种洪水场景下以最小允许车辆数量为目标的安全疏散计划。为伏尔加-阿克图巴洪泛区建立的人口疏散计划可用于各种大河谷的实践。
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