European ionospheric forecast and mapping

Abstract

A new technique is developed for forecasting and instantaneous mapping of the ionospheric parameters over Europe, based on analytical presentation of the mapped quantities. The diurnal and seasonal variations of the ionospheric foF2 and M(3000)F2 parameters are represented by a modified version of the regional model ISIRM adjusted to the past measured data. An autoregressive extrapolation of the data from the past month enables the 15-day-ahead forecast of the quiet ionospheric distribution to be performed. In addition, the short-term variations due to geomagnetic activity are defined as a plane surface superimposed on the quiet distribution. This correction is obtained by two plane characteristics as functions of the geomagnetic three-hour Kp index. In this way the 24-hour forecast can be obtain during quiet as well as disturbed ionospheric conditions. The corresponding EIFM software provides a variety of options to perform the short-term forecast depending on availability of the measured ionospheric data and predicted Kp values.