Toward Predictive Modeling of Solar Power Generation for Multiple Power Plants

Abstract

SUMMARY Solar power is the most widely used renewable energy source, which reduces pollution consequences from using conventional fossil fuels. However, supplying stable power from solar power generation remains challenging because it is difficult to forecast power generation. Accurate prediction of solar power generation would allow effective control of the amount of electricity stored in batteries, leading in a stable supply of electricity. Although the number of power plants is increasing, building a solar power prediction model for a newly constructed power plant usually requires collecting a new training dataset for the new power plant, which takes time to collect a sufficient amount of data. This paper aims to develop a highly accurate solar power prediction model for multiple power plants available for both new and existing power plants. The proposed method trains the model on existing multiple power plants to generate a general prediction model, and then uses it for a new power plant while waiting for the data to be collected. In addition, the proposed method tunes the general prediction model on the newly collected dataset and improves the accuracy for the new power plant. We evaluated the proposed method on 55 power plants in Japan with the dataset collected for two and a half years. As a result, the pre-trained models of our proposed method significantly reduces theaverageRMSEofthebaselinemethodby73.19%. Thisindicatesthatthe modelcangeneralizeovermultiplepowerplants, andtrainingusingdatasets from other power plants is effective in reducing the RMSE. Fine-tuning the pre-trained model further reduces the RMSE by 8.12%.