How do migration decisions and drivers differ against extreme environmental events?

Abstract

Migration is often understood to be a livelihood strategy to cope with the effects of environmental threats and climate change. Yet, the extent to which migration decisions differ due to the type, severity, and frequency of environmental events has been little explored. This paper employs household surveys in southwestern Bangladesh to explore this research gap. A multinominal regression model is used to simulate reported future migration decisions (200 sample households) in the context of both rapid-onset (i.e. cyclone and flood) and slow-onset (salinity, siltation, and riverbank erosion) environmental phenomena. Results show: i) previous disaster experience and increasing conflict in the community motivate migration in the near future in the context of slow-onset phenomena (salinity); (ii) economic strength and self-efficacy increase non-migration intention in both contexts of sudden and slow-onset events; and (iii) the extent and pattern of these influences on migration differ across demographics, including education, religion, and age. Importantly, this analysis shows that the relationship between migration decisions and the type, severity, and frequency of environmental events is influenced by socioeconomic conditions. Therefore, this research supports future adaptation planning specifically tailored to the type and exposure of extreme environmental events.