A Qualitative Study of Time Overrun of Completed Road Projects Awarded by the Niger Delta Development Commission in the Niger Delta Region of Nigeria

F. Ogbeide, J. Ehiorobo, O. Izinyon, I. Ilaboya
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Abstract

Time overrun of completed road projects awarded by the Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC) in the Niger Delta Region of Nigeria from its inception in 2000 up to 2015 was studied. Out of 3315 roads awarded, only 1081 roads representing 31.65 percent were completed within the review period. The qualitative study was carried out on randomly selected completed 162 road projects for analysis, and a conceptual model of time series was developed. In developing the regression model, both dependent and independent variables were subjected to normality tests assessed by skewness coefficient, kurtosis value, Jarque-Bera test, residual probability plot, heteroscedasticity test and the variance inflation factor. Also, with knowledge of total road projects awarded by the Commission, it is now possible to predict proportions of roads experiencing schedule overruns.
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尼日尔三角洲发展委员会在尼日利亚尼日尔三角洲地区授予的公路完工项目超时的定性研究
研究了尼日尔三角洲发展委员会(NDDC)在尼日利亚尼日尔三角洲地区从2000年成立到2015年完成的道路项目的超时情况。在被授予的3315条道路中,只有1081条道路在审查期内完工,占31.65%。随机选取162个已竣工公路项目进行定性研究,建立时间序列概念模型。在建立回归模型时,因变量和自变量均通过偏度系数、峰度值、Jarque-Bera检验、残差概率图、异方差检验和方差膨胀因子进行正态性检验。此外,由于了解了委员会批出的全部道路项目,现在可以预测出现工期超支的道路的比例。
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