Fuzzy evaluation of coordinated development of logistics and trade in coastal areas based on granger causal model

Abstract

The Belt and Road is the logistics and trade of China’s coastal areas, which has gained new development opportunities. To explore the Belt and Road strategy in the current situation of logistics and trade development in coastal areas, the coastal logistics and trade measurement indicators were selected, an evaluation model of the collaborative development of logistics and trade was built by using time-series data and fuzzy theory, and the causal relationship between the indicators was analyzed through the Granger causal model. Results show that from 2009 to 2018, the total logistics value and trade volume of the studied area show an increasing trend year by year, and the trade scale shows an upward trend year by year. The trade dependence of the coastal area reaches about 37.5%, and the key driving force of economic development is trade export. The total logistics value of the coastal area and the trade import, export, and total import and export of the region, there is a high positive correlation among the three indicators, and the correlation coefficient between the import volume and the export value is more than 0.84, reaching the “extra high” evaluation level, and there is a highly significant positive correlation between the two indicators. The logistics and trade in the region have a positive correlation and collaborative development relationship.