An ecological climate change classification for South Australia

IF 0.8 4区 综合性期刊 Q3 MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES Transactions of the Royal Society of South Australia Pub Date : 2018-01-02 DOI:10.1080/03721426.2018.1438803
G. Guerin, P. J. O'Connor, B. Sparrow, A. Lowe
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引用次数: 5

Abstract

ABSTRACT Temperatures in South Australia have risen 0.5–1.5°C post-1950, a trend expected to drive ecological change. However, climate sensitivity, landscape resilience and management priorities vary among regions. We classified the vulnerability of South Australian plant assemblages to climate change in a framework that combines climate sensitivity and resilience. Generalised Dissimilarity Models (GDMs) of plant species composition were trained with species occurrence records from field plots. Resilience was represented by the proportional remnancy of native vegetation surrounding each location. Landscapes were classified using bivariate quantiles. Mean annual rainfall, summer maximum temperatures and spatial structure were important predictors of species turnover. GDMs (explaining 37–68% of deviance) were projected onto future climate scenarios to calculate sensitivity metrics. The Wheat Belt, mallee and Flinders Ranges were the most sensitive, representing a climatic transition characterised by rapid change in species assemblages. Southern Eyre Peninsula and western Kangaroo Island were classified as Resilient; the Mount Lofty Ranges, southern Flinders Ranges and eastern Kangaroo Island as Resistant; northern Eyre Peninsula and northern Flinders Ranges as Sensitive; and the Wheat Belt as Susceptible. The classification assists decisions on management priority and provenances or species selection for restoration and assisted migration in conjunction with other biodiversity measures.
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南澳大利亚的生态气候变化分类
自1950年以来,南澳大利亚的气温上升了0.5-1.5°C,这一趋势预计将推动生态变化。然而,气候敏感性、景观恢复力和管理重点因地区而异。我们在结合气候敏感性和恢复力的框架中对南澳大利亚植物组合对气候变化的脆弱性进行了分类。利用野外样地的物种发生记录对植物物种组成的广义不相似性模型进行了训练。恢复力由每个地点周围原生植被的比例残余来表示。采用双变量分位数对景观进行分类。年平均降雨量、夏季最高气温和空间结构是物种更替的重要预测因子。gdm(解释了37-68%的偏差)被预测到未来的气候情景,以计算敏感性指标。小麦带、马利和弗林德斯山脉是最敏感的,代表了以物种组合快速变化为特征的气候转变。艾尔半岛南部和袋鼠岛西部为弹性区;巍峨山脉、弗林德斯山脉南部和袋鼠岛东部为耐药山脉;艾尔半岛北部和弗林德斯山脉北部为敏感地区;小麦带易受影响分类有助于决定管理重点和种源或物种选择,以便与其他生物多样性措施一起进行恢复和辅助迁移。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
1.40
自引率
12.50%
发文量
17
审稿时长
>12 weeks
期刊介绍: Published since 1880, the Transactions of the Royal Society of South Australia is a multidisciplinary journal that aims to publish high quality, peer-reviewed papers of particular relevance to Australasia. There is a particular focus on natural history topics such as: botany, zoology, geology, geomorphology, palaeontology, meteorology, geophysics, biophysics, soil science and environmental science, and environmental health. However, the journal is not restricted to these fields, with papers concerning epidemiology, ethnology, anthropology, linguistics, and the history of science and exploration also welcomed. Submissions are welcome from all authors, and membership of the Royal Society of South Australia is not required. The following types of manuscripts are welcome: Reviews, Original Research Papers, History of Science and Exploration, Brief Communications, Obituaries.
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