{"title":"An ecological climate change classification for South Australia","authors":"G. Guerin, P. J. O'Connor, B. Sparrow, A. Lowe","doi":"10.1080/03721426.2018.1438803","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Temperatures in South Australia have risen 0.5–1.5°C post-1950, a trend expected to drive ecological change. However, climate sensitivity, landscape resilience and management priorities vary among regions. We classified the vulnerability of South Australian plant assemblages to climate change in a framework that combines climate sensitivity and resilience. Generalised Dissimilarity Models (GDMs) of plant species composition were trained with species occurrence records from field plots. Resilience was represented by the proportional remnancy of native vegetation surrounding each location. Landscapes were classified using bivariate quantiles. Mean annual rainfall, summer maximum temperatures and spatial structure were important predictors of species turnover. GDMs (explaining 37–68% of deviance) were projected onto future climate scenarios to calculate sensitivity metrics. The Wheat Belt, mallee and Flinders Ranges were the most sensitive, representing a climatic transition characterised by rapid change in species assemblages. Southern Eyre Peninsula and western Kangaroo Island were classified as Resilient; the Mount Lofty Ranges, southern Flinders Ranges and eastern Kangaroo Island as Resistant; northern Eyre Peninsula and northern Flinders Ranges as Sensitive; and the Wheat Belt as Susceptible. The classification assists decisions on management priority and provenances or species selection for restoration and assisted migration in conjunction with other biodiversity measures.","PeriodicalId":49425,"journal":{"name":"Transactions of the Royal Society of South Australia","volume":"32 1","pages":"70 - 85"},"PeriodicalIF":0.8000,"publicationDate":"2018-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"5","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Transactions of the Royal Society of South Australia","FirstCategoryId":"103","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1080/03721426.2018.1438803","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"综合性期刊","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
Abstract
ABSTRACT Temperatures in South Australia have risen 0.5–1.5°C post-1950, a trend expected to drive ecological change. However, climate sensitivity, landscape resilience and management priorities vary among regions. We classified the vulnerability of South Australian plant assemblages to climate change in a framework that combines climate sensitivity and resilience. Generalised Dissimilarity Models (GDMs) of plant species composition were trained with species occurrence records from field plots. Resilience was represented by the proportional remnancy of native vegetation surrounding each location. Landscapes were classified using bivariate quantiles. Mean annual rainfall, summer maximum temperatures and spatial structure were important predictors of species turnover. GDMs (explaining 37–68% of deviance) were projected onto future climate scenarios to calculate sensitivity metrics. The Wheat Belt, mallee and Flinders Ranges were the most sensitive, representing a climatic transition characterised by rapid change in species assemblages. Southern Eyre Peninsula and western Kangaroo Island were classified as Resilient; the Mount Lofty Ranges, southern Flinders Ranges and eastern Kangaroo Island as Resistant; northern Eyre Peninsula and northern Flinders Ranges as Sensitive; and the Wheat Belt as Susceptible. The classification assists decisions on management priority and provenances or species selection for restoration and assisted migration in conjunction with other biodiversity measures.
期刊介绍:
Published since 1880, the Transactions of the Royal Society of South Australia is a multidisciplinary journal that aims to publish high quality, peer-reviewed papers of particular relevance to Australasia.
There is a particular focus on natural history topics such as: botany, zoology, geology, geomorphology, palaeontology, meteorology, geophysics, biophysics, soil science and environmental science, and environmental health. However, the journal is not restricted to these fields, with papers concerning epidemiology, ethnology, anthropology, linguistics, and the history of science and exploration also welcomed.
Submissions are welcome from all authors, and membership of the Royal Society of South Australia is not required.
The following types of manuscripts are welcome: Reviews, Original Research Papers, History of Science and Exploration, Brief Communications, Obituaries.